Thursday, March 5, 2020

March 5, 2020: Coo-Coo for Corona Flu

This graphic shows that the #Coronavirus did not start in a "market." Of the first 4 cases identified (Dec. 1-10, 2019), 3 were NOT exposed to the market and 1 was. 
Unfortunately social panic has been stoked and set in. So it may be too late to make people stop and think. 
Sen. Cotton: "As one epidemiologist said: 'That virus went into the seafood market before it came out of the seafood market.' We still don't know where it originated."
Perhaps Sen. Cotton was quoting Daniel Lucey, the Georgetown University infectious disease specialist interviewed by Science magazine for an interview published back on January 26, 2020.
Lucey stated, commenting on the article: "The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace." 
"In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report."
"'No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,' they state."
"Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace."
"'That's a big number, 13, with no link,' says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University."
But everybody jumped to conclusions about cause and effect.

"Earlier reports from Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization...simply said 'most' cases had links to the seafood market, which was closed on 1 January."
In a media interview, President Trump challenged the reports that 3.4% of exposed patients die.

But the fact is, President Trump was right. 
As the Daily Kos explains, the method for calculating the fatality rate is simple.

How many people died? 3,285
How many confirmed cases? 96,600

Move the decimal over two places. That's 3.4%.

Let's do some math.

I am terrible at math.

But you have to think folks. 
"In the broadest possible terms, there is something to what Trump is saying. There are an unknown number of unreported cases with relatively mild outcomes. Adding those cases to the total case count would decrease the overall CFR." (case fatality rate) 
"No one knows what that number is."
"On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which may be the source of the best, if unintentional, experimental data available, about 1/2 of those who were tested and found to have the novel coronavirus had either mild or no symptoms."
Using the Diamond Princess cruise ship as a weak statistical example, but just an example for comparison, you would have to double the number of cases.

What's 96,600 x 2. 

OK, so now you do the same formula as before, but you switch out 193,200 for 96,600.

That would be a confirmed fatality rate of half what the media is reporting - or 1.7%.

You see the 17, and so do I.

Before we talk about that, let's go back for a second. 

"The biggest breakdown yet of novel coronavirus cases suggests that 80% are mild. Some patients never show symptoms." 
"A new report from the Chinese CDC & Prevention analyzed records of all of China's reported cases of the virus from 12/8/2019-2/11/2020 — a total of 72,314 patients. 

The researchers found that 80.9% of the confirmed cases were mild."
Of this group, 2.3% (or 2,087) "developed symptoms the report defined as 'critical': respiratory failure, septic shock, or organ failure. All of the deaths came from that group."
At the same time, "infected people could show no symptoms at all — that was the case for 1.2% of the patients."

Think logically: If someone has no symptoms, they aren't going to be tested, and so there is no accurate measure of the death rate.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control knows very well that the Corona flu risk is exaggerated.

But they haven't done anything to calm people down.
Live Science reports, using the CDC's own data: "So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 89,000 illnesses and 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza." 
"In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 32 million illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."
If you want to get nervous about something that the CDC has warned about, try heart disease. 
Let's talk about the corona flu as a bioweapon.

There are a few ways that a disease can be used as a bioweapon.
One way is to actually develop a killer disease, and then unleash it.

Francis Boyle, a humanitarian lawyer who drafted the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989, which had bipartisan support as it was signed into law, says corona flu is one. 
"Dr. Francis Boyle, who drafted the Biological Weapons Act has given a detailed statement admitting that the 2019 Wuhan Coronavirus is an offensive Biological Warfare Weapon and that the World Health Organization (WHO) already knows about it." 
"Dr. Francis Boyle discusses the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China and the Bio-safety Level 4 laboratory (BSL-4) from which he believes the infectious disease escaped." 
Video of Dr. Boyle saying this. 
"Believes the virus is potentially lethal & an offensive biological warfare weapon or dual-use bio-warfare weapons agent genetically modified...which is why the Chinese gov originally tried to cover it up & is now taking drastic measures to contain it.
"The Wuhan BSL-4 lab is also a specially designated World Health Organization (WHO) research lab and Dr. Boyle contends that the WHO knows full well what is occurring."
Biowarfare & Terrorism (Boyle, 2005)

"probes the vastly expanded US biowarfare research and related civilian preparedness programs, revealing a discovery related to the Chemical and Biological Research Project which could lead to a public outcry" 
Corona flu "hysteria" is another method of conducting biowarfare.

You don't have to do anything except scare people. 
"'This Might Be Bad': CDC Says Americans Need To Start Preparing For Coronavirus Pandemic" 
"Conveying its most heightened level of alarm to date, the CDC on Tuesday said Americans should begin preparing for a coronavirus pandemic that could disrupt their daily routines, including work and school."
"During a telephone press briefing, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said"
"that given the level of "community spread" of the disease in South Korea, Italy and Iran, that it was no longer a question of if, but of 'when and how many people in this country will have severe illness.'"
Messonier is sister to Rod Rosenstein, which led to speculation as to the motive for such a strong statement, when it was not actually supported by....scientific reality.
Dr. Boyle is certainly not partisan. 
As of March 3, when the CDC website was last updated with information about the virus, things seemed a bit more balanced.

Let's look. 
"Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern....At this time, however, most people in the United States will have little immediate risk of exposure to this virus. This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States.
"However, it is important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic."
(Just showing you the date.) 
What does the word "pandemic" mean?
It does not mean "epidemic."
Rather, it simply means that the virus affects a nation or the world. 
It's just the flu.
Calmmmmmmmmmmm down. 
By Dr. Dannielle Blumenthal. All opinions are the author's own. Public domain.