Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Let's Talk Turkey (Unedited Thread 10/7-8/2019)

1) OK let's talk Turkey.
3) Before we begin. This is not a referendum on Nikki Haley, just the events of the day.

4) Sorry. I got called away.

Where were we?
5) So, I think what might be helpful for me is to just start with the President's tweets from today.
6) It seems like all of a sudden, there were a lot of them, kind of out of the blue, about Turkey.
7) Last night, the President ended his communications for the day with talk of prosecuting Pelosi for treason.

You have to remember that we're working under a different set of laws now - she knows this.
8) Link to Emergency Powers statutes

9) We start today at 7:40 a.m. with the President saying that he's getting us out of Syria - which is a total disaster zone - ISIS is defeated.

(Still unclear as to how much ISIS is its own thing vs. construction of the DS, but not examining this right now.)
10) The issue appears to be that we wanted to ship the defeated "ISIS" fighters back to Europe, but Europe wouldn't take them, and so we were somehow supposed to house them in the USA...uh, no!

Smells like a setup to me.
11) @POTUS mention a mishmash of other countries that somehow want to embroil us in their problems. I like that he wants to get us out of it.

It's sort of like being in the office, and people are in some kind of interpersonal, interdivisional war that's gone on for years...
12) You know how that is? Each side of the fight tries to court you, and then you jump in because you are stupid, and then someone gets you in trouble for getting involved.

13) Here's the problem. Someone (Obama) manufactured this fighting force (McCain) (etc.) as a weaponized terrorist group - in just the same way as they weaponized MS-13 - they create the bogeymen they want us to fear.

Hillary admitted this many years ago.
14) We are unfortunately unable to have an honest conversation about anything when it comes to foreign policy, because every single moment of honesty is equivalent to stepping on someone's
15) I find it interesting that the @POTUS tries to get us out of war, just like the leftists claim to want, and then as soon as he does it all the "neocons" come rumbling out and freaking out, yelling "war" "war" "war" and "panic" "panic" "panic"
17) Why does the media quote her, but not talk about her father's "secret side trip" to Syria to "speak with the rebels" (uh, ISIS which we now hate) back in 2013

18) Not to put myself down, but you know you're in bad shape when you have to get your foreign policy analysis from a middle aged lady who's just Googling.
19) The thing is, with all of this, it has nothing to do with your credentials, and everything to do with your willingness to



20) So now we fast forward to 11:20 AM today, ~4 hours after the President first started tweeting, and we have this message. The President reminds us that it was one of his promises to extract us from these costly, endless conflicts.

You know who benefits from them?

21) Definitely the military-industrial complex benefits.
25) "Though Pres. Obama denounced sequestration, his actions suggest that...he was comfortable with its gutting of the defense budget. During the 2011 negotiations the White House had already begun work on a new national-security strategy to accommodate drastic defense cuts."
26) "The Defense Strategic Guidance of 2012 proclaimed that the U.S. could afford to draw down the military because the Iraq and Afghanistan wars were ending and al Qaeda was on the run."
27) You see, you have to understand the difference between having a strong military capability, and squandering our soldiers' lives.
28) "In 2013 then-Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel organized a new strategic review that determined the military could perform its key missions even if the Army shrank to between 420,000 and 450,000 soldiers."
29) "The White House wove this finding into a narrative in which the Defense Department approved of a sequestration-size military."
30) "WH Press Secretary Josh Earnest wheeled out this talking point on July 8 when asked about the Army’s 40,000 layoffs, saying the force reductions were 'consistent with the view of our civilian and uniform military leadership about the threats that the country faces.'”
31) "Few in the Defense Department ever held that view."
32) "In 2012 Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that if sequestration went into effect, 'we would no longer be a global power.'"
33) Obama talked about getting out of the wars, but not in an intelligent way. Rather people called it "idealistic" (they did not realize that his efforts were intentional).

The net result of his failure to act was that the conflicts got WORSE and not better.
34) "whereas Bush’s approach was...overly aggressive posture...Obama has sometimes erred too far in the other direction, seeming prone to idealism and wishful thinking. This has hampered his administration’s efforts to combat the terrorist threat"

35) "despite Obama’s laudable [COUGH COUGH] attempts to calibrate Washington’s response, the American people find themselves living in a world plagued with more terrorism than before Obama took office, not less."
36) "Civil war, sectarian tensions, and state failure in the Middle East and Africa ensure that Islamist terrorism will continue its spread in those regions—and most likely in the rest of the world as well."
37) "Most worrisome is the emergence in Iraq and Syria of the self-proclaimed...ISIS...whose brutal violence, ability to capture and hold territory, significant financial resources, and impressive strategic acumen make it a threat unlike any other"
38) Obama of course praised his own outstanding work to fight ISIS - "we’ve continued to be relentless in our fight"

40) "Then there is the former Secretary of Defense’s recollection of working with Obama himself. Unlike Mattis’ generally friendly assessment of Biden, the memoir has no similarly kind words for the former president."
41) "The way Mattis tells it, Obama is personally responsible for the violence, chaos, destruction, raping, and pillaging that occurred in Iraq after the U.S.’ abrupt withdrawal."
42) "The way Mattis tells it, the former president is a man consumed entirely by arrogance and pride, whose stubborn refusal to listen to those who understood the situation on the ground in Iraq doomed thousands of civilians to die."
43) "Mattis summarizes his time commanding CENTCOM, overseeing military operations in the Middle East & Central Asia until Obama fired him, in harsh terms: “It was to be a time when I would witness duty and deceit, courage and cowardice, and, ultimately, strategic frustration.”
44) Regarding Biden, Mattis says: “I found him an admirable and amiable man. But he was past the point where he was willing to entertain a ‘good idea.’ He didn’t want to hear more; he wanted our forces out of Iraq. Whatever path led there fastest, he favored."
45) “He [Biden] exuded the confidence of a man whose mind was made up, perhaps even indifferent to considering the consequences were he judging the situation incorrectly.”
46) Unlike Obama and Biden who had ulterior motives, President Trump thinks about the human lives at stake, and the best way to win.

Obviously you get very strong, prepare for conflict, and if necessary, you go in and you do what needs to be done.
47) The real story of ISIS, of course, is that it wasn't exactly a crisis that fell out of the sky.

Rather it was one that we nurtured.
48) "A...recently declassified secret US intelligence report, written in August 2012...uncannily predicts – and effectively welcomes – the prospect of a 'Salafist principality' in eastern Syria and an al-Qaida-controlled Islamic state in Syria and Iraq."

51) "The sectarian terror group won’t be defeated by the western states that incubated it in the first place"
52) "there was plenty of evidence the British state was itself providing 'extensive support' to the armed Syrian opposition."
53) "That didn’t only include...body armour and military vehicles...but training, logistical support and the secret supply of 'arms on a massive scale'."
54) "Reports were cited that MI6 had cooperated with the CIA on a 'rat line' of arms transfers from Libyan stockpiles to the Syrian rebels in 2012 after the fall of the Gaddafi regime."
56) Okay. I was just reading all your thoughts and comments.

Let's boil down what we have so far.
57) Under President Obama, the policy was to create ISIS and not fight it.

Under President Trump, the policy is to destroy ISIS and stop fighting.
58) We know that ISIS did not emerge from nowhere but rather it was nurtured to life by the same crew that tried to overthrow President Trump with "Russiagate" - the same crew that overthrew the Ukraine gov in 2014 - they never stop making trouble.
60) You will notice that I've made this thread about Turkey, not Syria, for reasons that will soon become clear.

But until now the point has been to establish that the President always has our safety and security FIRST and FOREMOST in his mind.

Whereas OBAMA and BIDEN did not.
61) We know very well that there are "intended unintended" consequences of every action. And that by creating a "fighting force" intended to overthrow Syria, we would unleash the hounds of hell on others in the region.

A force that we ourselves would not be able to control.
62) Old fashioned politicians and other hacks and mouthpieces, who have zero understanding of military strategy and whose interest is in their own pocketbooks and the limelight of temporary fame, have wasted no time attacking President Trump for his sensible announcement.
63) People who have OTHER interests in mind, namely NOT the interests of the United States, are signalling frantically that we should do "something, anything" to stay in Syria and get YET MORE people's heads blown off.

64) These same people are going ON and ON about how we "shouldn't trust Erdogan" -- as if President Trump ever trusts anyone (well, most anyone) in the first place.
65) 11:23 a.m: @POTUS rt'ed Kurt Schlichter:

"Turkey is invading N. Syria. The Pres. is keeping us out of it. The gang that never met a war they didn’t want to fight (and fail to win) will be outraged....ask them one thing....how many American lives it’s worth. I say 'Zero.'🇺🇸"
66) So this is the part we have to figure out.

We understand the logic of extracting ourselves from the Syrian quagmire - since in all honesty, the other players want the US to sink like a stone.

Let them fight their fight - let them deal with the savages.
67) But Turkey invading N. Syria?

And the nexus between this action and our decision to pull out?

Needs more explaining.
68) At 11:24 a.m., the President retweets @hughhewitt, who is responding to @michaeldweiss, who is freaking out.

Hewitt is saying that we have to leverage our activities where they will be of most use.

Not the most satisfying answer.
69) Remember I told you, I'm a middle aged lady using Google (and DuckDuckGo) and QAnon and blah blah blah blah blah maybe Feedly...so you follow me to the end of this thing at your own risk.

I am reading, unfamiliar, and not getting the picture yet.
70) Regarding Turkey and trustworthiness.

Remember this? from @SirHublife
71) Watch.

73) I do tend to trust @sibeledmonds and note she approves of @POTUS strategy.

74)"With his timing & this decision #Trump kills several birds with 1 stone: A- #Syria Exit & Preventing #USA Vietnam 2.0 of being bogged down there; B- Calling #Turkey’s Bluff & Have it face burden & consequences; C- Going Against #Israel’s Plans & Ops Against Iran using #Kurds"
75) So -- not trusting Erdogan, and trusting Sibel's strategic acumen, how are we regular people to understand what is happening.
76) 11:25 a.m. -- the President, four hours ago, has just announced that we are pulling out of Syria, and now we learn that Erdogan is coming to town, and that the issue is the Turks vs. the Kurds (who stood and fought ISIS - incredible bravery)
77) Not sure if you've seen this, but I remember the song by Helly Luv called "Revolution" - about the Kurds fighting ISIS - great.

79) What's confusing is that the picture looks friendly but it's not a friendly occasion.
80) "Erdoğan accepted the invitation during a call with Trump in which the Turkish president expressed dissatisfaction over the U.S military's apparent failure to implement a safe zone agreement in northeast Syria."

Here is my helpful map.
81) "Erdogan wants the safe zone to be established to eliminate threats from the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, which is supported by the U.S. but considered a terrorist organization by Turkey."
82) What is the issue between Turkey and the Kurds?

They want autonomy.

84) Think about if you could leave American soldiers there to die.

On 10/7 CNN reported that @POTUS said the hardest thing he has to do is sign the letters notifying families.

85) 11:38 a.m. 10/7 the President threatens to smash Turkey to smithereens...obliterate them to all oblivion...and so on...if they take advantage of the soldiers' leaving and do stuff they shouldn't do. He makes an interesting comment about "my great and unmatched wisdom" - troll
86) Let's go to @ddale8's useful thread to hear a bit more of what the President said 10/7.
87) I dunno to me this is basic common sense.

We can't be fighting everyone's fight.

He consulted with the military.

...yes but something still isn't sitting right...

The Kurds ARE our allies.

We were SUPPOSED to have their backs.
88) OK so a bunch of retweets here, 11:25-11:26, making points the President wants to make.
89) First of all, Turkey is a big place - approx. the same size as Texas - we can't get into a Vietnam situation.

90) Second of all, we have to be mindful about Turkey/Russia linkup
92) Yes, shockingly, Obama got in with the Commies.
93) 11:26 AM, another retweet, the people we thought we should be defending are not necessarily who we think they are....remember the earlier mention of office politics.
94) Finally (11:38 a.m., 10/7) the President makes the point that others really need to step up and deal with the situation overall, including the ISIS fighters. Others can do their fair share - it is not always for the U.S. to come in and be the cleanup crew, with no thanks.
95) The other thing is, we are supposed to be fighting the spread of communism not helping it, and these particular Kurds are super radical leftists

96) "The PKK's ideology was originally a fusion of revolutionary socialism and Kurdish nationalism, seeking the foundation of an independent Communist state in the region....The initial reasons given by the PKK for this were the oppression of Kurds in Turkey and Capitalism."
97) Let's get some updates from @sibeledmonds feed. Highly recommend!
99) We're also slowing Turkey down a bit

100) Here is her cool reply to the leftists: "I Term the Following “Pathetic Overreach” .Failing to Understand #Geopolitics in Order to Get The Fact That This is Actually a Major Blow to #Turkey In its Bluffing Game Overplayed."
101) Last thing, and I don't want to dwell too much on this, but it seems worth noting that Turkey is a large repository of information about the @GenFlynn case, which is legally significant because of how he was railroaded.

Get it?


103) One thing is for sure, you really learn a lot by just sitting down with an unfamiliar news thing.

I hope you enjoyed this thread.

No timeline resulted tonight, I guess, but it's been interesting nevertheless.

By Dr. Dannielle Blumenthal. All opinions are the author's own. Public domain.