2. Extreme Scenario - Negative: Government defends more and more against public demands for increased transparency. The public reacts with dismay, causing trust levels to decrease. When change inevitably is brought about, it is painful all the way around.
3. Likely Scenario - Hybrid: Some forces in government move toward increased transparency, others against. Some in the public try to reinforce the positive, others are angry and suspicious no matter what. Process not optimal. Outcome not clear.
(Opinions are always my own.)