Sunday, March 29, 2020

March 29, 2020: Coronavirus Status Report

A Spanish doctor's cry for help. This is unbelievable. Whoever withholds drugs or medical equipment...why?
Well since I'm up now, let's see what we can find out.
About the current situation. 
Anecdotally I am hearing about friends of friends getting sick in NYC. I am hearing about religious Jewish neighborhoods being especially hard hit ("Monsey, Borough Park,Paramus") 
There is a tremendous amount of ignorance and fear and it is growing. 
3/25/20 Jason Goodman @csthetruth checked out the claim by @nypost "Members of the military seem to be setting up a temporary morgue." (51:30). The Air National Guard would neither confirm or deny this, but gave out the name/# of a public affairs contact.
3/29/20 FB friend comment: "Look at all the threats to a global government - Brexit and other countries wanting to escape the clutches of the unaccountable bureaucrats and regain their sovereignty," /1 
"the election of Trump in America, and as you say, the failed efforts to remove a democratically elected President. I believe this virus is being used to impose total control over society, so they can re-establish their New World Order." /2 
"Democracy has been suspended in much of the free world, and we are returning to the Dark Ages, where not only our physical freedom is curtailed, but we are forbidden to have opinions that differ from the mandated ones." 
Me today on FB: "There is no doubt in my mind that this virus is a bioweapon, and that it was released as a "failsafe" when the other measures failed.... The goal is to stop the President" 
FB friend (a separate friend) "very scary... u work in DC , correct ?directly where u can have certain knowledge and insight..?"

My response: "I have no knowledge and insight from working in DC. I just research on the Internet."

1 person made a "laugh" emoticon at this. 
Another person says to me, in a message: "Those people who aren't listening are getting the virus. I'm talking about the Chasidim BAD!!!" 
Person continues: "-- told me a chassidic Rabbi died today and showed me a video of Hatzalah [Jewish EMS] people telling some Chasidim [Hasidim] they aren't supposed to have shul [synagogue] and the Chasidim weren't listening." 
" I also saw on Facebook a doctor went into a shul in Flatbush to tell the people it is wrong and dangerous what they are doing and one man assaulted him" 
3/28/2020 Someone else forwarded me this message from Rep. Josh Gottheimer urging Gilead Sciences to make remdesvir available.

The family is trying everything possible to get help for the patient, Michael Goldsmith (Moshe Eliezer halevi Ben Esther Tzipora).
Nobody knows:
* How long the country will be shut down
* How to get the help checks
* How bad the disease really is
* How to get medicine
* WTF is going on 
Look back at Feb. 11, 2020: data from the Chinese CCDC (their CDC) released which reflected "all cases" in China as of that date. That means known, possible, and "asymptomatic" (how would they know). Look at the death rate per age group (it doesn't add up to 100).
That word "asymptomatic" of course throws a big monkey wrench into this data. How can you calculate what you don't know?

But you can see that there was no cause for panic at that time, except among the very elderly, who were already known to be especially vulnerable. 
Males twice as likely as females to die, we know that.
We are still in the China data, still at February 11.

Look at the way the death rates jump when there are certain other illnesses present: heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, high blood pressure, cancer.
Jump ahead to right now - March 29, 2020.

664,071 confirmed cases
30,883 deaths
4.65% death rate

I prefer to work ONLY from confirmed cases right now because I am interested in the cure rate.

But asymptomatic cases are real and significantly skew the # down. 
Look at this spike in new cases PER DAY.
This is what's concerning.
It's shooting up.

March 26: 60,830
March 27: 64,501
March 28: 66,758…
"A growth factor above 1 indicates an increase, whereas one which remains between 0 and 1 it is a sign of decline."

The daily cases growth factor needs to be less than 1.
Yesterday it was 1.03.…
The number of cases not in China is growing rapidly.
Raw numbers: CURRENTLY ILL
* About 1/2 million people (490,859)
* 95% - mild case (465,652)
* 5% - seriously or critically ill (25,207)
These 2 trendlines are very concerning. We are looking at "closed cases" and whether they ended in recovery or death.

You can see that the recovery line (green) went up, and is now declining.

However, the death line (orange) went down, and is now going up.
Why is the death rate 18% in these cases?

In a word: Hospitalization 
It's not clear what percentage of deaths resulted from getting sick in the hospital itself (e.g. acquired pneumonia). 
Let's look at the USA right now.
Coronavirus Cases: 123,750
Deaths: 2,227 (1.7%)
Recovered: 3,231 (2.6%)
You can see that the cases in New York and New Jersey are exploding. This is just yesterday.

NY: +7131
NJ: +2299
However, if you look at the new cases as a % of the existing cases, the picture changes slightly. Highest increases are (descending order):

Puerto Rico
New Jersey
The reason COVID19 is such a big deal is that it is that we don't have any immunity to it. This is a lengthy video where the doctor explains how it kills people.
Russia is closing its borders starting March 30.… 
Meanwhile on the civil liberties front, NYC is droning to catch social distance violators

"One month before the first case of Coronavirus was confirmed in Wuhan, there was a meeting. In Geneva, the WHO holds a Global Preparedness Meeting titled: "A World At Risk" convened by the World Bank, Red Cross, funded by Bill and Melinda Gates."

They talk about the risk of a pandemic

"Whether naturally emergent or accidentally or deliberately released."


OCTOBER 2019 - "The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY."
Report published a month prior, that's an interesting graphical representation of an epidemic…
2017: "Inside the Chinese lab (WUHAN) poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens"

Editors' note, January 2020: "Many stories have promoted an unverified theory that the Wuhan lab discussed in this article played a role in the coronavirus outbreak"

"Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) sold as much as $3.1 million worth of stock from Jan. 24 — the day she attended a private briefing for senators on COVID-19....also reportedly bought shares in the tech firm Oracle and Citrix, which provides teleworking software." 
Sen. Richard "Burr...sat in regular confidential briefings about the coronavirus and sold off his stocks in companies that later would be slammed in the market sell-of as he publicly downplayed the risk of the outbreak." 
"Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat, sold $500,001 to $1 million worth of stock in a company called Allogene....Spokesman Tom Mentzer said her assets are in a 'blind trust' and that she 'has no involvement in any of her husband's financial decisions.'" 
"Sen. James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican who dumped as much as $400,000 worth of stock on Jan. 27, told reporters Friday that he stood falsely accused....when you chair a major committee...people are always looking to see if you have a conflict of interest." 
We should include at least some of the POTUS-bashing. Hillary's tweet almost made it seem as though she planned this: "He did promise 'America First.'"

We don't need to add the idiotic rantings on Facebook where people actually called POTUS "Shitler" and Twitter today had "Trump Genocide" trending. 
The media loves Dr. Fauci. Here he is in 2009 telling people not to panic about H1N1 Influenza Virus.

"You can't isolate yourself from the rest of the world for the whole flu season."

By Dr. Dannielle Blumenthal. All opinions are the author's own. Public domain.